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10 ANNUAL REPORT 2014Deutsche EuroShop SHOPPING Demographic change No magic bullet, but many go P layers wanting to succeed in the market have to adapt to this demograph- ic change. However, the clichés about the typical senior citizen no longer apply. The new generation of seniors is fitter and leads an individual lifestyle. The trend towards one-stop shopping that feels like an experience is the biggest opportunity for shopping centers here – provided they learn to understand their elderly clients. Prof. Dr. Tobias Just, economist at the University of Regensburg, says that demographic change is like a “glacial movement”. Just is also the Academic and Managing Director of the IREBS Immobilien- akademie, a German real estate business school. The reason for the gradual shift is that after the Second World War, the annual birth rate rose sharply until the mid-1960s. Those born during that period when the birth rate was high – the baby boomers – will be pensioners in the decades ahead. The number of births per year fell again from the 1970s onwards. be in plentiful supply, and must be wide enough. The layout of shops should also be senior-friendly with wide aisles and no goods on low shelves where they may be difficult to reach. They should provide somewhere for shoppers to sit down and take a break. All of these are ways to cre- ate a high-quality shopping expe- rience and atmosphere. Another trend emerging in the wake of demographic change is the rising number of single-person households in Germany. They al- ready make up over a third of all households, according to a report by the Federal Statistical Office re- leased in the summer. The changes in the make-up of the population will feed through into products. Consequently, the Federal Sta- tistical Office forecasts that the proportion of under-20s will fall from around 18.1% in 2013 to 15.7% in 2060. In the same peri- od, the number of people aged 60 and over will jump from 27.1% to 39.2%. Meanwhile, the popula- tion will shrink from 80.3 million to 70.1 million inhabitants. However, the “new old people” as the Generali Old-Age Survey calls them, are not like the seniors of earlier generations. Today’s 65 – 85s are already more active and better off financially than ever before. Their life satisfaction is high and they like to socialise. In addition, the elderly value their independence more, according to the survey. The follow-up study, pub- lished in the spring of 2014 un- der the heading “Der Ältesten Rat” (“Council of the Elders”), draws a similar conclusion. This time, the focus is on the 85 – 99s, who want to have just as active a social life. The picture of old people in society is also changing because Pack sizes will become smaller. Price and information labels will get bigger. And there will be great- er emphasis on health aspects. It should also be remembered that seniors have a lot of time at their disposal and are free to spend it as they wish. In this connection, online shopping sites will indi- rectly compete with bricks-and- mortar shops. “In future, customers will no longer make a distinction between online and traditional shopping,” says Michael Reink, head of the lo- cation and traffic policy division at the German Retail Federation (Handelsverband Deutschland, HDE). The lines are becoming blurred. Smartphones and tablets are no longer a mystery to today’s the age pyramid is getting wider at the top. That is why Tobias Just prefers to speak about the oppor- tunities that demographic change brings, rather than the risks. He does not share the more pessi- mistic views of the subject, such as those described by journalist Frank Schirrmacher, who died last summer, in his book “Das Methu- salem-Komplott” (“The Methuse- lah Conspiracy”). In his own book, “Demografie und Immobilien” (“Demograph- ics and Real Estate”), Tobias Just describes how retail property op- erators can equip themselves to deal with shifts within the pop- ulation. Service is one of the key factors here. Elderly customers value the advice and social ele- ment it can bring. They also want a delivery and assembly service, something that Swedish furniture retailer Ikea has recognised. In addition, elderly people like to do their shopping close to home. Shops have to be within walking distance or well connect- ed by public transport. On green- field sites, parking spaces need to While the population is shrinking, life expectancy is rising. At the same time, the number of single-person households is growing in the cities. This has consequences, including for the retail sector and shopping center industry. » Elderly people like to do their shopping close to home. Shops have to be within walking distance or well connected by public transport.