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ePaper created 2012-04-27, 18:36:07 | version 1.23.1
fall in exports, German GDP is not expected to rise more than 0.6% this year. Nor is there any quick solu- tion for the euro and sovereign debt crisis on the horizon. For 2012, GfK is forecasting a real- terms rise of 1.0% for private consump- tion in Germany. The sustained positive situation on the job market and expectations of higher incomes have given German con- sumers security in their planning for major purchases. The loss of confidence in the financial system is giving further impetus to the trend towards higher-value purchases. Consequently, private consumption is mak- ing a stable contribution to the economy and preventing a backslide into recession. €21 billion. For 2012, GfK is anticipating another nomi- nal rise in sales of around 1.0% for non-food retailing. CONSUMPTION IN 2012 − SHOPPER ENTHUSIASM REPLACES CRISIS FEARS As a result of the growth in private consump- tion and competitive export business, Ger- man GDP rose by 3.0% last year, which is markedly higher than most of its European neighbours. This gave the job market a con- siderable boost, which has been sustained this year. German income expectations are accordingly high. However,thesepositivesignalsforprivatecon- sumption are curbed by economic forecasts which are decidedly more negative. Based on the weakened global economy and resulting Moderate growth in non-food retailing – significant surge in e-commerce revenues Source: GG SymphonyIRI Group, GfK ConsumerScope 1) Non-food: electronics/textiles/hardware/DIY (excl. pet care/coins) 2) GfK forecast fall in exports, Stylish sunglasses from Bijou Brigitte not expected to rise 50s-style triangle bikini at Lascana FORECAST GFK 2012 Private consumption in 2012 supportive labour market and the expectations of higher incomes are giving consum- ers security in their planning for major purchases Low rates of interest on savings and worries about inflation are also boosting the urge to consume Compared with the rest of Europe, Germans have moved from being reluctant consum- ers to optimistic consumers The trend towards higher- value purchases continues to gather pace There is a continuing trend towards a greater focus on quality Real growth of 1.0% expected Consequently, private con- sumption is making a stable contribution to the economy and preventing a backslide into recession Scarf with butterflies from Orsay 16 DES Annual Report 2011 SHOPPING consumption